CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2024-10-03T08:24:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2024-10-03T08:24ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/33711/-1
CME Note: CME first seen in the NE by SOHO LASCO C2 beginning at 2024-10-03T08:24Z, as well as by SOHO LASCO C3 and STEREO A COR2 in later frames. The source of this event is a filament eruption centered at approx. N25E70 with liftoff beginning at approx. 2024-10-03T07:30Z as seen in SDO AIA and GOES SUVI 304. Field line opening can be seen clearly in SDO AIA 171, 193, 211 and GOES SUVI 284. This filament erupted gradually, so there is a small amount of material seen preceding the main bulk of the CME from which the measurement was based. No signs of glancing blow from this CME were observed in the solar wind at L1. With the observed 2024-10-06T06:55Z significant shock arrival at L1 attributed to a much faster Earth-directed 2024-10-03T12:48Z CME, it might be possible that the flank of the 2024-10-03T08:24Z CME may have been swept by into the front of the faster 2024-10-03T12:48Z CME.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----
Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-10-06T19:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 20.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:
Issued: 2024 Oct 03 1238 UTC :Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu #--------------------------------------------------------------------# # DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC # # (RWC Belgium) # #--------------------------------------------------------------------# SIDC URSIGRAM 41003 SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 03 Oct 2024, 1236UT SIDC FORECAST SOLAR FLARES : M-class flares expected (probability >=50%) GEOMAGNETISM : Quiet (A<20 and K<4) SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet PREDICTIONS FOR 03 Oct 2024 10CM FLUX: 300 / AP: 010 PREDICTIONS FOR 04 Oct 2024 10CM FLUX: 290 / AP: 046 PREDICTIONS FOR 05 Oct 2024 10CM FLUX: 290 / AP: 033 Solar Active Regions and flaring: Solar flaring activity was high over the past 24 hours, with few C-class flares and 7 M-class flares identified. The largest flare was a M3.3 flare (SIDC Flare 2200) peaking on October 02 at 20:51 UTC, which was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 257 (NOAA Active Regions 3823, 3842). During the flare, the source region (SIDC 257; AR 3823, 3842) of the flare had beta-gamma-delta configuration of its photospheric magnetic field. A total of 10 numbered sunspot groups were identified on the disk over the past 24 hours. SIDC 257 currently located at S15 E06 has a beta-gamma-delta magnetic configuration and was growing over the past 24 hours. Solar flaring activity is expected to be high over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares very likely and a chance for X-class flares. Coronal mass ejections: Further analysis of a coronal mass ejections (CME), detected at 23:12 UTC on Oct 01 in LASCO C2 data with a projected speed of 600 km/s and a projected width of 119 degree, shows a possible impact at Earth on Oct 04-05. This CME was associated with an X7.1 flare from SIDC Sunspot Group 257 (NOAA Active Region 3842, S16 E16), which peaked at 22:20 UTC on Oct 01, and the EUV wave. Associated type II radio emissions were also detected at 22:17 UTC on Oct 01. Another CME was first observed on coronograph images around 08:34 UTC on Oct 03. This was associated to a filament eruption on the NW quadrant of the Sun, and also possibly associated with the flaring activities from the SIDC 277 (NOAA AR 3848). The analysis of presently available coronograph images shows that this CME has a projected width of about 100 deg and a projected speed of about 525 km/s. With the bulk of the mass strongly directed towards NE limb, this CME will miss Earth, but a glancing blow related to the shock may be possible on Oct 06. No other Earth-directed CMEs were detected in the available coronagraph observations during last 24 hours. Solar wind: Earth is presently within the slow solar wind regime. The solar wind speed ranged from 300 km/s to 400 km/s and the interplanetary magnetic field ranged from 3 nT to 7 nT. Similar conditions can be expected for the next 24 hours, unless the coronal mass ejection that was observed lifting from the Sun on Oct 01 arrives earlier than expected. Geomagnetism: Geomagnetic conditions were globally quiet (NOAA Kp 1 to 2) and locally at quiet to unsettled conditions (K_BEL 1 to 3). Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected in the next 24 hours, unless the coronal mass ejection that was observed lifting from the Sun on Oct 01 arrives earlier than expected. Proton flux levels: The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was below the threshold level over the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain so during the next 24 hours. Electron fluxes at GEO: The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, was below the threshold level over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so in the coming 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence is presently at normal level, and it is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours. TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN : 224, BASED ON 13 STATIONS. SOLAR INDICES FOR 02 Oct 2024 WOLF NUMBER CATANIA : 274 10CM SOLAR FLUX : 275 AK CHAMBON LA FORET : 009 AK WINGST : 006 ESTIMATED AP : 006 ESTIMATED ISN : 219, BASED ON 18 STATIONS. NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY DAY BEGIN MAX END LOC XRAY OP 10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES 02 1322 1338 1358 S19E07 M3.2 1N 31/3842 02 2027 2051 2106 S15E03 M3.3 2 31/3842 III/1 03 0223 0234 0248 N13W08 M1.1 SF 25/3841 03 0322 0341 0359 ////// M1.5 31/3842 VI/2 02 1958 2015 2027 ////// M1.4 31/3842 III/1 03 0810 0828 0830 N12W08 M1.5 SF 25/3841 03 0830 0836 0841 ////// M1.5 31/3842 ENDLead Time: 75.58 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Chris Stubenrauch (M2M Office) on 2024-10-03T15:25Z
CCMC
Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME
model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before
performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival
Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with
the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting
forecasters/researchers.
If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.
Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Collection Consent Agreement